Redevelopment Radar
Methodology, limitations, and corrections.
The radar makes dated, public predictions about redevelopment — so it owes readers a plain statement of how it works, what it can and cannot claim, and how to reach us when something is wrong. This page is that statement.
The land is the subject. Every property is read as a parcel first, a structure second.
01
What a listing here means — and what it does not
A redevelopment candidate is a parcel our analysis rates as more likely than its neighbors to be rebuilt in the coming years, based on patterns in public records: the age and scale of the existing structure, the utility of the lot, recent recorded transactions on and around it, and the character of recent buyers in the area.
It is an analytical estimate of likelihood — nothing more. A listing is not a statement about any owner's plans or intentions, which we do not know and do not claim to know. It does not mean a property is for sale, has been offered for sale, or should be sold. It is not an appraisal, an opinion of value, or advice of any kind.
To keep the focus on blocks rather than households, entries are published at the block level only, and property attributes are deliberately rounded — lot sizes to the nearest 500 square feet, living area to the nearest 100, build years to the decade.
02
Where the data comes from
The radar is built from public and licensed records: the county assessor roll and recorder (ownership, recorded transactions, parcel characteristics) and City of Manhattan Beach permit records (demolition and new-construction permits). No private information about owners or occupants is used or published.
Public records are delayed and sometimes incomplete. Recordings can take weeks to appear, permit data reflects the city's last publication, and characteristics on the assessor roll can lag reality. Each release reflects the records available at the time it was prepared — not a live feed.
03
How a prediction is published
Each month, every parcel in the coverage area is re-scored through a land-value and redevelopment lens. The strongest signals become candidate entries — and then every entry is reviewed and approved by a person (Jonathan Smith) before it appears on this site. Nothing publishes automatically.
The date an entry first appears is recorded and never revised. That date — not any later edit — is the anchor for the track record. Predictions that stop being supported by the records rotate off the public page rather than lingering indefinitely.
04
How a prediction is confirmed — and how misses are handled
When a public demolition or new-construction permit later appears for a parcel we called, the entry moves to the confirmed record citing that permit. The interval between the dated public call and the permit is the radar's track record. Only parcels that were publicly listed as predictions can ever be counted as confirmations — we do not claim credit for permits we never called.
Predictions that never receive a permit are misses, and the ledger on the radar page reflects the honest state of the record, including “track record in progress” while it is early. A prediction engine that never missed would not be making real predictions.
05
Corrections, removal, and owner contact
If you own property on a listed block and believe an entry is inaccurate, out of date, or should not appear, contact us directly: jonathan@jonathansmith.realtor or (424) 677-6975. Identify the block and the concern — you do not need to identify your exact property.
We respond within one business day, review the underlying records, and correct or remove the entry promptly if it is wrong, stale, or raises a privacy concern we missed. Corrections are logged internally so the same error is not republished.
The radar lives at /radar · analytical estimates from public records · not legal, tax, financial, or appraisal advice · Jonathan Smith · DOMO Real Estate · DRE #01940912
Confidential Inquiry
Start with the property, the role, and the decision you need to make.
Every inquiry is read personally and held in confidence. Choose the pathway that fits, or simply describe your situation.
- Confidential lot-value review. For owners of older Manhattan Beach or South Bay homes who want to understand land-value and buyer-path options.
- Probate / trust property. For heirs, trustees, executors, and advisors who need a practical real estate disposition discussion.
- Divorce-related property. For attorneys or parties who need real estate-specific valuation thinking, process, discretion, and execution.
- Builder acquisition criteria. For builders and developers who want to share lot size, location, price, timing, and product requirements.
- New-construction buyer interest. For qualified buyers who want early awareness of future Manhattan Beach and South Bay new-home opportunities.